Tuesday, May 30, 2017

Conspiracy to tell a story

Conspiracy theories amuse me.
It is easy to look at a series of historical events to identify patterns, whether real or fictious.

Did JFK get assassinated by a lone gunman or was Oswald a patsy?
Did planes really cause the Twin Towers to fall or were they rigged with explosives.
Did the Gulf of Tonken actually happen?
And what about the Superbowl? Did the New England Patriots fairly win this year's Superbowl.

It is easy to associate patterns with a group people who benefit from the actual outcome.

Have you noticed the Superbowl in recent years?
There's always an amazing catch toward the END of the game to decide the winner.
David Tyree catches a pass off his forehead to force the last drive to continue and ultimately helping the New Giants to win the Superbowl,
Hines Ward tip toes at the very back of the end zone to win the game in the final moments for the Steelers,
Malcolm Butler intercepts a goal line pass to end the seemingly unstoppable Seattle Seahawks.

Almost every year, there are a new set of heroics, almost like the "best-ever" has to be outdone. It's highly improbable that best ever can get topped every year, but somehow it continues to happen.

This years Superbowl has the biggest comeback in championship history.

It was the greatest game ever.

My gut thinks it was too great to be true.

The only thing this year's Superbowl didn't have was Hulk Hogan lifting his finger in defiance of defeat.

There was a time when the Superbowl was referred to as the Superbore.  Games were decided in the first quarter because of the huge mismatch. Mysteriously enough, the game has evolved. The points have gotten closer. The game mostly gets decided in the fourth quarter.

Is it possible that million dollar advertisers felt ripped off when people starting changing the channels when the game got out of reach?
Is it possible that the game had to be closer to make more money for the league?

There is a difference between sport and business.
My high school football team played a sport.

The NFL, as well as any professional sport, is a business.
Business is money, customers and entertainment.

Entertain someone and they'll give you their attention while they open up their wallets.

Because of the business aspect of professional sports, we are seeing the emergence of storyline. Business is about stories. Stories entertain. They keep us coming back for more.  Brands are stories embedded in the mind of the market.

The story mezmorizes us into thinking that everything is real, when it's not.

The New England Patriots value has increased from $571 million in 2002 to a staggering $3.4 billion in 2016. They won 5 championships in that time but it's still a growth of 595% in 14 years.

The average differential in points at the Superbowl has gone from 18 points in the 1980's to 8.28 points in the 2010's (excluding the 2014 game, which was the only blowout in 12 years).

Too many Superbowls have gone by with too many "best catches" ever. It can't always be better than the year before.

Can it?

I'm seeing the same thing in other professional sports. NFL is the worst offender, but the NBA, MLB and NHL are all teetering on the improbable forcing the final series closer to 7 games year after year.  The NBA in the 2010's averages 6.14 games in the final series. The NHL boasts 6 games in the finals whereas they used to average 5 games in the 1980's and 90's.

As long as fans believe it to be true, then it shall be.

I think about the ancient gladiators fighting in the Colosseum. Was this about sport or were the combatants fighting against a stacked deck?

I believe we are living in a time where the professional athletes of today are playing against that same stacked deck, in the spirit of wealth generating storylines.

I'm probably wrong, but the theory is interesting none the less.

By the way, I'm a huge New England Patriots fan so please no hate mail about the Tom Brady heroics. It's just an observation that gets reinforced every year.

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