Monday, July 20, 2015

Opinions or Analysis

Opinions are like assholes, everyone has one...

What about analysis? Can you analyze a product, a situation, a person and keep the subjective emotional state from penetrating the objective, scientific, logical self?

Recently, I was in a room with six bureaucrats arguing the value of my property assessment. They said I didn't pay enough for my house and I should pay more in property taxes.

I argued the only issue to be analyzed is the subjective value (what we think) versus an objective value (what we know).

Subjective data was shared at nauseum from the bureaucrats as they justified their importance and validated their credibility to do their jobs. They suggested at one point that the method of analysis could be changed to increase the value of the property even further.

I thought to myself, "I'm dealing with cogs. Better yet, as my grade 11 English teacher used to call them, pinheads." There's no way I can win this argument. They are speaking a foreign language to me. They're speaking government talk.

As they tried to justify value, they used subjective data on the sale of comparable homes. As I questioned the interior of each of those homes, I discovered there was no data. I questioned the motivations of the sellers.  Seller motivation on other homes could not be ascertained. Yet, the value of my home was based on seller motivation and its interior.

I asked if any comparable homes had gold plated floors. The executive director who wished to be called Madame Chair, informed me that no two houses were exactly the same.

Exactly!

In retrospect, I could have asked Madame Chair to refer to me as Supreme Chancellor. It was a farce.

Then it occurred to me that data is used this way all the time. Prospective business owners are not encouraged to use objective data to predict future revenues in the purchase process. They make opinions about how much better the business will be when they own it.

Unfortunately sometimes data is limited. And we have to use what we have to form an opinion. The usage of that data is risky because of the multiple variables that could change the outcome. In these cases, the opinion is only an opinion. However, it's the closest value we can rely on to make a decision.

Imagine having chronic back pain. You go to your family doctor to relieve the pain and he tells you that you have cancer of the kidneys. His opinion, based on what you told him, is that cancer is the problem. You're not going to believe him. You're going to want to see a specialist or a second opinion. You'll want a blood test. You'll want to have accurate data before moving to the next stage of treatment.

But that probably won't happen. Doctor's aren't trained to give their opinions. Even though their opinions are based on experience and training. They are trained to get data and act on the information the data provides.

Do you look for data to support your thinking or do you look for data and then form your analysis? The first is subjective and is called confirmation bias. The second is objective.


With a background in finance and marketing, Rick Nicholson owned two highly successful restaurants before selling them to start a consulting business. His current company The Restaurant Ninjas provides tools to the foodservice industry to become more profitable. His book, "The Art of Restaurant Theft" can be downloaded for free at www.therestaurantninjas.com

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